NAR: Pending Home Sales Index shows market easing
Topic: Real Estate Market
WASHINGTON -- Dec. 7, 2005 -- The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator for the housing market, is moving toward a more balanced market, according to the National Association of Realtors? (NAR).

The index, based on contracts signed in October, dropped 3.2 percent to a level of 123.8 from a reading of 127.9 in September, and is 3.3 percent below October 2004; the current reading is the lowest since March of this year.

The index is based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. A sale is usually finalized within one or two months of signing.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says a decline was expected. “The drop in pending home sales is an affirmation that we are experiencing a modest slowing in the housing sector,” he says. “The index is pointing to a soft landing for home sales, which will help to correct the inventory shortages that have dominated housing over the last five years. This should restore balance to the market.”

A Pending Home Sales Index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be analyzed, and was the first of four consecutive record years for existing-home sales. Sales in 2001 were fairly close to the higher volume of home sales expected in the coming decade, well above the levels that were seen in the mid-1990s, so an index of 100 is considered to be historically strong.

NAR President Thomas M. Stevens says it’s important to look at the index from a broader view. “The level of home sales activity remains quite strong from a historical perspective,” says Stevens. “It’s unrealistic to expect continuous records or to sustain double-digit home-price gains. People shouldn’t interpret a market that is returning to equilibrium as something that’s undesirable -- this will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector by taking excessive pressure off of home prices.”

Regionally, the PHSI in the West rose 0.8 percent in October to 134.8, but was 2.0 percent below October 2004. In the South, the index was down 2.5 percent to 135.4 in October but was 1.2 percent higher than a year ago. The Midwest index dropped 6.3 percent to 112.2, and was 10.2 percent below October 2004. The index in the Northeast fell 6.9 percent to 101.8 in October, and was 6.4 percent lower than a year ago.

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Americans Want to Keep Tax Mortgage Deduction
Related story:
Senator says he can block Bush tax issue
WASHINGTON -- Nov. 11, 2005 -- Americans overwhelmingly support retaining federal tax incentives to promote homeownership and oppose altering the current system to encourage investment in the stock market, according to results from a nationwide survey of 800 likely voters.

"Voters are sending a loud and clear message to policymakers in Washington: don't mess with the mortgage interest deduction and other important housing tax incentives that promote homeownership," says Jerry Howard, executive vice president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

Commissioned by NAHB to gauge the public reaction to the recommendations by the President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform to overhaul the current system, the survey was conducted Nov. 6-8 by Public Opinion Strategies.

The polling found that 81 percent of voters believe it is reasonable for the federal government to provide tax incentives to promote homeownership, and 76 percent oppose replacing tax incentives promoting homeownership with incentives to invest in the stock market.

Furthermore, when asked to rate the importance of preserving tax deductions in the current tax system, 73 percent of those surveyed indicated top support for the deduction of mortgage interest and medical expenses. These top two items were followed closely by the deduction for state and local taxes, including property taxes, at 69 percent.

Those respondents renting their current homes were also high on preserving the mortgage interest deduction. In ranking the importance of current tax deductions, renters said this provision came in second at 62 percent, behind the deduction for medical expenses.

The President's panel on tax reform has called for replacing the popular mortgage interest deduction with a considerably more limited 15 percent tax credit. Also gone would be deductions for state and local taxes (including property taxes) and interest deductions for home equity loans and second homes.

In rating national issues they believe it is important for the President and Congress to address, survey respondents put tax reform low on their list of priorities, behind the war in Iraq, national security and terrorism, ending corruption in Congress, protecting Social Security and Medicare, slowing the rising cost of prescription drugs, improving education, creating jobs and improving the economy, holding down gas and energy prices, reforming the nation's immigration laws and protecting the environment.

According to the survey results, one reason voters appear skeptical of the current push for tax reform is that few believe they will end up paying less in taxes. Only 14 percent believe their tax bill will fall if tax reform is enacted. Conversely, 30 percent expect to pay more taxes under a new tax code.

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS?

Florida grows at near-record pace
Topic: Real Estate Market
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Nov. 1, 2005 -- Despite threats from people in storm-ravaged areas to move away, new University of Florida (UF) research shows that the devastating 2004 hurricane season had little or no effect on Florida's 2004-2005 population growth.

"Florida's population grew by more than 400,000 last year," says Stanley Smith, director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "This is one of the largest increases in Florida's history."

The Bureau bases its population estimates on building permit and electric customer data, combined with data from the 2000 Census. This year it supplemented its data by conducting 11,560 telephone interviews with residents in the 13 counties most heavily affected by the hurricanes.

"If the 2004 hurricanes had any significant effects on Florida's population growth, it would be in the area covered by these 13 counties," says Chris McCarty, director of the Bureau's survey program.

The hurricanes damaged 32 percent of the housing units for the state as a whole but 74 percent of the units in the 13-county area. Many residents were forced from their homes by structural damage and the loss of utilities.

"About 21 percent of the residents of these counties were forced to move out of their homes, at least temporarily," Smith says. "Most were away for only a few days or weeks, but others were away for several months and some still have not returned."

By the time the surveys were conducted in March through June 2005, 82 percent of those having to leave had returned.

Although the hurricanes had little effect on overall population growth for the state, they had a significant impact in several counties. The 2005 population estimates show one-year declines of 3,603 for Escambia; 2,955 for Charlotte; 1,499 for DeSoto; 454 for Hardee; and 239 for Okeechobee.

"The surveys found these counties to have experienced heavy hurricane damage," Smith says. "Since they had been growing in previous years and the state as a whole grew rapidly last year, these declines were clearly caused by the hurricanes."

Smith and McCarty do not believe the 2004 hurricanes will have a long-term impact on population growth in Florida. "Despite anecdotes of people tiring of hurricanes and wanting to leave, our prediction is that last year's hurricanes won’t have any effect on long-term growth," Smith says. "Most people just accept hurricanes as part of the price of living in Florida, along with heat, humidity, mosquitoes and alligators. Some people will certainly move away, but they will be replaced by others moving in."

Hurricanes have had little effect on the rapid pace of U.S. coastal development during the past 50 years, Smith says. A previous Bureau survey showed that while population growth in Miami-Dade County slowed the first year after Hurricane Andrew, it later rebounded to even higher levels. "It may take several years for the most heavily damaged areas to recover, but we believe they will continue to grow," Smith says.

However, hurricane hits for multiple years could take a toll on population growth, Smith says. "An occasional bad hurricane year won't override all Florida's advantages," he said. "If we had a number of bad years in a row, however, it could start to have an impact."

Smith and McCarty believe the effects of Hurricane Katrina will be quite different than the effects of hurricanes in Florida.

"Katrina was much more destructive, destroying more homes and forcing more people to move away than last year’s hurricanes in Florida," Smith says. "Many people lost their jobs as well as their homes and moved hundreds or even thousands of miles away."

New Orleans is a special case, given its unique physical characteristics and the nature of its damages, McCarty says. "We expect most of the Gulf Coast to follow the Florida model, with substantial short-term population declines but long-term population growth," he adds. "But New Orleans will recover much more slowly and may never again reach its pre-hurricane population size."

A copy of this report can be found on the Bureau's Web site.

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS?

Changes to FHA Programs
Topic: Mortgage News
SAN FRANCISCO -- Oct. 31, 2005 -- Brian Montgomery, head of the mortgage loan insurance programs at the Federal Housing Administration, announced significant changes Friday that will make it easier for consumers to use -- and Realtors? to promote -- FHA products.

Speaking at a forum during the 2005 Realtors? Conference & Expo last week, Montgomery said FHA will no longer have specialized FHA appraisals and will let homebuyers fold into their mortgage up to $35,000 in home repairs or minor remodeling.

Specialized FHA appraisals often require a list of repairs that have to be made before settlement, which often delay settlement, kill a transaction, or prompt Realtors and lenders to direct homebuyers elsewhere for a mortgage. Required repairs can be time-consuming and often unclear, but underwriters are afraid to waive the requirements.

FHA will continue to work with Realtors, lenders and appraisers to be consistent with the rest of the market, Montgomery said, and will no longer impose unnecessary repairs or require inspections and evaluations that aren't customary for an area. "Instead, we will accept the new Fannie Mae appraisal forms," he said.

"Similar to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we will defer to state and local requirements regarding the condition of the home," Montgomery added.

The new version of the loan will permit homebuyers to finance up to $35,000 in their mortgage to pay for straightforward home repairs, like replacing a roof, windows or furnace.

"The program is a financing tool for the average homebuyer who wants to make simple changes, such as updating the appliances or replacing flooring or installing new windows to make the home more energy efficient," he said. Buyer's agents can assure their clients "that they can close on the house, and then make the repairs," he added.

Montgomery said that the two major changes are the first of many, and that the recommendations came from the real estate industry. He assured Realtors that FHA is continuing to study its operations and programs, and to consider changes recommended by users, Realtors? and lenders.

"FHA needs to be compatible with the rest of the industry. I feel very strongly that FHA is here to serve the American public in a way that protects the consumer. But consumer protection that drives away the consumer is no protection at all," he said.

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS?

Hurricanes, housing boom blow construction materials prices through the roof
Topic: Real Estate Market
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Oct. 28, 2005 -- Hurricane-force winds may not have hit the First Coast this season, but hurricanes Katrina, Rita -- and now, Wilma -- have blasted the costs of construction materials skyhigh.

Local contractors and material suppliers say Wilma might deal the latest blow to construction materials prices, causing a spike in costs of the basic building blocks of homes, including cement, lumber and shingles.

Expected rebuilding efforts for Katrina and Rita have already driven prices up, spurring home prices up with them. According to the National Association of Home Builders, new home prices have grown 15 percent through August since August 2003.

Cement prices were already rising at a rate of about 20 percent every six months, said Frank Taylor, a sales and marketing agent with Heidelberg Cement Group.

"Demand has been very high in the Southeast region," he said.

"Katrina, Wilma, the housing boom -- all of that is driving prices up and putting us in a shortage."

Taylor said that Florida consumes about 10 million tons of cement per year, half of which must come from outside the state due to insufficient in-state production capacity. Thus, rocketing fuel prices have also driven cement prices skyward.

Bryan Lendry, president of the Northeast Florida Builders Association, said that higher cement prices might be coming from another unlikely source -- China. Construction projects there have sucked building materials away from the United States, leaving local contractors scraping for cement. The hurricanes worsened that costly trend.

Lendry said that his own company, custom home builder Brylen Homes, has seen a 50 percent increase in the cost of plywood since the end of September. The waiting period for asphalt shingles has also grown to between two and three weeks.

"Whenever a hurricane hits, we see lumber flying off the shelves," Lendry said. "We're getting hit with repair demands in an already tight market. Now, we might wait four or five days just for concrete. That used to be unheard of."

Since Sept. 1, the price of plywood has rocketed 30 percent and the price of OSB roof sheeting, which is used in the roofs of most local homes, has soared 40 percent, said Robert Mangum, who heads purchasing for the Carolina Lumber Company in Jacksonville.

"Since Katrina, these prices went way up, and with Wilma coming, manufacturers are probably going to keep prices up," he said.

Because South Florida mainly uses plywood in roofs instead of OSB roof sheeting, Mangum expects that plywood prices will see the largest increase once rebuilding begins.

Roofing materials, which are largely petroleum-based products, have also come in high-demand.

Asphalt shingles, which are used in the construction of most roofs, cost about 5 percent more every month than they did the month before, and shingles manufacturers are having to ration some suppliers as they struggle to keep up with demand, said Kevin Snyder, sales and projects manager for BBG Contracting Group Inc. in Jacksonville.

Glen McRae, assistant manager of the Jacksonville branch of the Bradco Supply Corporation, said that he has seen the price of asphalt shingles go up about 25 percent in the last six months and that his branch is on an allocation from his manufacturers.

People are trying to come up with alternatives but almost everything used in roofing is petroleum based," McRae said. "As you see gas prices go up, you can be sure that shingles are going up too."

McRae said that his supply line and prices had already been heavily affected by Katrina and Rita and that Wilma could cause another spike in demand and prices.

All of that might bring another headache for Katrina Hosea, owner of BeeTree Homes, a Jacksonville-based custom home builder. In the past four months, she has seen the prices that it pays for sheetrock rise 20 percent. Hosea said that she also has trouble getting dry wall and concrete for her houses.

"In my opinion, I find materials costs are extremely inflated, but a lot of the manufacturers know they can get these prices," she said.

? 2005, The Florida Times-Union, Jacksonville, Joe Light. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

Florida Consumer Confidence Unchanged
Topic: Real Estate Market
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Oct. 26, 2005 -- Consumer confidence among Floridians remained unchanged in October at 78, although researchers at the University of Florida (UF) saw considerable changes within the five components that, taken together, make up that number.

As expected, perceptions of U.S. business conditions over the next year rose to 63 after its steep decline in September to 56; and perceptions of U.S. business conditions over the next five years also rose by three points to 73. But perceptions of personal finances now compared to a year ago fell by five points to 75, and perceptions of personal finances a year from now remain unchanged at 90. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy fell five points to 86.

“We expected the index to remain unchanged or to rise slightly in October given the sharp decline in perceptions of short term U.S. business conditions as a consequence of hurricane Katrina,” says Chris McCarty, director of the survey research center at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “It is not unusual for the effects of such disasters to be short-lived in terms of consumer confidence.”

Sales have already declined recently as energy prices have spiked in recent months. The impact of high energy prices, particularly natural gas, will be even more of a burden during the winter months, although this will be less of a burden in Florida where winters are not so severe. Floridians will still see large increases in their utility bills as a consequence of high energy costs that pre-date Katrina.

Confidence fell by two points among people over age 60, while it rose one point to 80 for those under age 60. Older respondents were particularly less optimistic about buying conditions, that component falling eight points to 87.

“Moving forward, we expect the index to remain around 78 in the near term,” says McCarty. “As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten interest rates, and the price of gasoline and natural gas continues to rise, consumers will likely respond pessimistically. By December, we expect to see at least a slight decline in confidence. Retailers this shopping season are likely to see a pullback in spending compared to last year.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for July was conducted from 402 responses. The error rate is plus or minus 5 percent.

The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner.

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS?

New Home Sales Slow; Median Price Drops
Topic: Real Estate Market
WASHINGTON -- Oct. 27, 2005 -- New home sales for September reported today by the U.S. Census Bureau rose but at a slower pace than predicted by most experts.

Sales of new single-family homes rose 2.1 percent in September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.222 million units compared to August's 1.197 million units. The Census Bureau revises its statistics from previous months as new figures come in, and the numbers of June, July and August were all adjusted downward from the numbers first reported. Sales of new homes fell 0.1 percent compared to September 2004.

The supply of new homes available for sale expanded from August's 478,000 units to 493,000 -- a four-month supply.

The median price of a new home sale fell 5.7 percent to $215,700.

The overall growth was supported by an increase in new home sales in the South, which increased 5.6 percent, and the Midwest that climbed 24.9 percent. Sales fell in the Northeast 20 percent and 11.8 percent in the West.

? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS?

Tougher Terms Now Facing the Bankrupt
Topic: Legal
WASHINGTON -- Oct. 17, 2005 -- With an overhaul of the nation's bankruptcy code taking effect today, Americans will have to pay higher fees and offer greater evidence of financial hardship before having debts eased in court.

By making bankruptcy tougher in an effort to rein in abuses within the system, the new law is estimated to affect more than 1 million people per year who find themselves in a financial crisis whether due to illness, unemployment, divorce or simple money mismanagement.

The new law's main targets are those with fairly strong incomes who will have to submit themselves to a means test designed to steer more people towards Chapter 13 bankruptcy -- in which they are mandated to pay what they can to creditors over a five-year period -- rather than in Chapter 7 where their debts are eliminated.

The law does provide for extraordinary circumstances, however, so those reeling from Hurricane Katrina or another natural disaster in the future, or those who are stricken with a severe illness, still will qualify for Chapter 7 protection in most instances.

Source: Christian Science Monitor (10/17/05) P. 1; Trumbull, Mark

? Copyright 2005 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

HUD - No Down Payment Mortgages in Hurricane Regions
Topic: Mortgage News
WASHINGTON -- Oct. 13, 2005 -- The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced that HUD has a mortgage financing program that requires no downpayment for people whose homes have been destroyed or damaged due to Hurricanes Katrina or Rita. In addition to requiring no downpayment, potential homeowners can live anywhere they choose in the United States.

"HUD is committed to helping people affected by these terrible disasters to re-establish their lives," says HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson. "We want to give these families and individuals an opportunity to start over -- as homeowners -- whether they owned or rented their previous residences."

Under the special mortgage program, called Section 203(h), HUD, through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), will insure mortgages for individuals or families in a presidentially declared disaster area whose residences were destroyed or damaged to such an extent that reconstruction or replacement is necessary.

Borrowers must be able to qualify for FHA mortgages, which are generally easier to qualify for than those on the private market, but they will not have to put any cash down. In addition, the FHA mortgage insurance premiums can be financed into the mortgage amount, so only minimal closing costs would be required.

An added benefit of the 203(h) mortgages, which are offered by any FHA-approved lender, is that they can be used anywhere in the U.S. For example, Katrina victims from Louisiana can choose to move wherever they wish. The mortgage amount is limited, but can be as much as $312, 895, depending on the average sales prices in the area.

For More Information on 203(h), contact a HUD-approved lender, the HUD National Servicing Center Hotline at 1 (888) 297-8685, or HUD's Web sites: www.hud.gov and espanol.hud.gov


? 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS?

Mortgage Rates Hit 6% and Climbing
Topic: Mortgage News
NEW YORK -- Oct. 14, 2005 -- Americans may have seen the last of long-term mortgage rates below 6 percent, and borrowing costs for home buyers likely will climb further, slowing frenetic demand that has stoked U.S. housing in recent years.

Realtors have spotted a drop in the appetite for housing in recent months, and a survey of lenders from Freddie Mac on Thursday found that rates for 30-year mortgages - a popular home loan - have crested 6 percent for the first time since March.

"The most likely pattern is for mortgage rates to gradually rise over time. It is likely that they'll hover at 6 percent or just a bit over," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. He added that "will translate into somewhat weaker demand for housing, lower home sales volume and lower house price growth."

Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry trade group said that "because of increased concerns about inflationary pressures, it will stay above 6 percent."

In raising interest rates last month, Federal Reserve policy makers expressed their concerns about inflation. And earlier this week, meeting minutes from those Fed officials hinted at more interest rate increases.

These concerns have been noticed in the broader financial markets, especially the U.S. Treasury securities market where interest rates have risen, tugging mortgage rates with them.

According to Freddie Mac, the U.S. housing agency which sells guarantees for home loans, this week's 6.03 percent for 30-year mortgages is the second highest level of the year. Thirty-year rates were at 6.04 percent in the March 31 week.

This week is also the third time this year mortgage rates are above 6 percent - an important psychological level. When rates were below 6 percent, this helped spur home buying and refinancings of home loans that allowed Americans to spend their way out of the most recent economic downturn.

The low mortgage rates have supported consumer spending on goods and services - which accounts two-thirds of the nation's gross domestic product - because low borrowing costs allowed home owners to draw money from properties that had appreciated in value.

Also, the steady rise in the cost of money is sure to limit home price appreciation because buyers won't be able to as readily bid up prices on homes for sale.

"It is going to definitely cause more of a slowdown," said Brenda Binczewski, a realtor at Carlson GMAC Real Estate in Palmer, Mass. Binczewski said she has seen a drop in business since July and has not had multiple offers for a home in three or four months.

By contrast, a year and a half ago a single home could have two or three offers, Binczewski recalled.

Freddie Mac's Nothaft pointed out that he does not expect a sharp drop in home prices or home sales because the rise in mortgage rates has been gradual. "It would be different if we had a spike in mortgage rates," said Nothaft.

Duncan noted that some home buyers may resort to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) which initially have lower borrowing costs.

"As fixed rates rise, ARMs will become a bigger factor," said Stephen LaDue, president of Affiliated Mortgage of Wauwatosa, Wisconsin. "The rate of increase in home values will slow or will start to stagnate" because of higher rates, he said.

In its survey, Freddie Mac found that adjustable rate mortgages, which are linked to one-year Treasury rates, were offered 4.85 percent this week. That is up from 4.77 percent a week ago and 4.01 percent 12 months ago.

Further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve probably will push ARM rates even higher, analysts said.

At the same time, a few consumers prospecting for properties - especially those prequalified by lenders - may be spurred into action by the rising interest rates.

"People may start buying before it (the mortgage rate) goes up any more," Binczewksi said. "They would make offers because they have rate locks. Now, with rates increasing, they won't want to lose rate locks."

Associated Press Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.

Copyright ? 2005 Associated Press, Aleksandrs Rozens. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.